Betting markets worldwide are indicating that cardinals Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle are the frontrunners to become the next pope after Pope Francis. Despite the odds, a betting expert questions the reliability of these predictions.
On Wednesday, 133 cardinals will gather for a papal conclave at the Vatican's Sistine Chapel to select a successor to Pope Francis, who passed away on April 21.
Following Francis' death, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi saw Parolin, known as a compromise candidate, rise above others as the potential favorite in most betting markets.
Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, cautions that while the betting markets are active, they may not be as accurate as those predicting events like elections due to the smaller scale of bets placed on the papal conclave.
Presidential elections involve various factors that drive larger bets, leading to more accurate predictions. Crane highlights the wealth of data available for elections compared to the limited information on the papal candidates.
Although interest in the next pope is growing globally, professional bettors are not heavily involved, with only recreational bettors wagering small amounts.
While the accuracy of these betting markets may not match those of larger markets, they have identified the leading candidates for the papacy.
Details on the top candidates to succeed Pope Francis:
Pietro Parolin: A compromise candidate with a diplomatic background, was Francis' secretary of state.
Luis Antonio Tagle: Referred to as the "Asian Francis," known for his dedication to social justice.
Peter Turkson: A Ghanaian cardinal, would be the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa.
Matteo Zuppi: Known as "the Italian Bergoglio" for his similar approach to Francis.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa: Advocates for peace in the Middle East, may be hindered by his relative youth.
Peter Erdo: Considered a conservative with pragmatic views, seen as a compromise candidate.
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